El Niño Climate Monitor and Forecasts

Weeks ahead

What 6 sub-seasonal models predict for temperature, rainfall, pressure pattern and snowfall over the next 6 weeks, and how much they agree.

Initialized 28–3 October 2026, by center · S2S, ECMWF Data Store

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Fields
Region
Week

Temperature anomaly

−4.50+4.5°C

Precipitation anomaly

−9.50-5.05.0-2.02.00.5+9.5mm/day
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Model

Hatching marks where fewer than 5 of 6 models agree on the sign of the anomaly. Not every model runs the same length, so week 1 has 5, week 6 has 5. Snowfall is carried by 4 of 6 centers.

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Regional averages

Area

Temperature

Precipitation

500 hPa height

Snowfall

S2S data from the ECMWF Data Store, published by ECCC, ECMWF, HMCR, KMA, NCEP and UKMO under CC BY 4.0.

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