El Niño Climate Monitor and Forecasts

Seasonal outlook

What 10 seasonal models predict for temperature and rainfall over the next 6 months, and how much they agree.

Initialized September 2026 · Copernicus C3S

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Month

Temperature anomaly

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−3.50+3.5°C

Precipitation anomaly

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−8.00-2.02.0-0.50.5+8.0mm/day
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Model

Hatching marks where fewer than 7 of 10 models agree on the sign of the anomaly.

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Regional averages

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Temperature

Precipitation

Anomalies are each model's own departure from its own hindcast climatology, as published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

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